It's official: Rep. Joe Sestak is the Democratic Senate nominee in PA, beating incumbent Republican - to - Democrat switcher Arlen Specter by around 8%.
Again, best candidate on the issues and best general election candidate.
Sestak's campaign strategy was widely overlooked. This was a major conventional wisdom FAIL. The devastating "Switch" ad from the Sestak campaign is rightfully being credited with a major role in the win. But let's remember that this ad was one of two that were part of the often - used media strategy of The Campaign Group -- part of Sestak's team.
Aside from Chris Cillizza, I can't think of a prominent national observer who warned against writing off Sestak.
The Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania is more or less tied. If Tuesday's results are going to sent a crucial message, that accountability matters, rank and file Democrats of every stripe will need to vote their values.
Personally, I've been a Joe Sestak supporter since day one. One of the main reasons why is that Sestak is a reliable, mainstream Democrat. There's a very good case for him. With that said, if Sestak is going to win, the case against Arlen Specter will have to be fresh in the minds of primary voters. The more light that is shed on Specter's record, and what his nomination would mean, the clearer it becomes that Pennsylvania deserves much better.
In mid - April, Chris Cillizza challenged the notion that Arlen Specter was cruising in the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania. The news of the Sestak campaign's demise was greatly exaggerated. Too many commentators weren't aware of the previously successful strategy Sestak is using.
Yesterday, Jay Cost (h/t Greg Sargent) covered Joe - Mentum, Sestak style.
Pennsylvania Republicans stopped trusting (Arlen Specter) a long time ago, and if general election polls are to believed, Independents have done the same. That just leaves Pennsylvania Democrats - who historically have never really trusted him. That's why I think this race will be tight. Sestak has a good amount of money - $5.3 million cash on hand as of March 30 - and a simple, compelling message to Pennsylvania Democrats: you've never believed that Arlen Specter represents your interests in Washington, why start now?
Chris Cillizza did a good job of challenging the conventional wisdom that the Sestak campaign is hopelessly stalled.
First and foremost because Sestak is sitting on $5 million (as of the end of 2009) -- a not insignificant sum that should allow him to fight Specter somewhat evenly on television in the final month of the race. (Specter ended 2009 with a whopping $8.7 million in the bank.)
Second, Sestak has clearly chosen to run a truncated campaign -- believing that a short race will allow him to better neutralize the spending edge that Specter has while also driving home the negatives against the incumbent -- starting with the fact that he switched parties in the spring of 2009 --- in a sustained way that will leave a mark with voters.
The "hold your fire" approach is a hallmark of the Campaign Group, the media firm handling Sestak's ads, noted one Pennsylvania Democratic strategist. The source pointed out that in the 2007 Philadelphia mayoral race, Michael Nutter -- a Campaign Group client -- waited until the very last minute to go on television but managed to catapult past his opponents to win the race.
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Third, there is a widespread belief that Sestak has room to grow while Specter is at hi acme with Democratic voters. The Q poll showed that just 12 percent of likely Democratic voters didn't know enough about Specter to offer an opinion while a whopping 58 percent said the same of Sestak.
And a new Rasmussen poll (obligatory "grain of salt" reference) shows Sestak and Specter basically tied.
Arlen Specter again looks to be in real trouble if he goes on to face Pat Toomey. While Toomey is far to the right of the Pennsylvania mainstream, this is a terrible year to be a Washington insider. And everything about Arlen Specter screams "Washington Insider." This is an entirely winnable general election -- as long as it doesn't become a referendum on Arlen Specter's long tenure in the Senate and party - switching in general.
To be fair, Specter has been a solid Democrat for the most part over the last few months. But most of the credit for that development belongs to the Sestak campaign.
On both substance and politics, Joe Sestak is the better choice. It would be a big mistake to write him off.
Responding to a Susquehanna Poll showing that only 31% of Pennsylvania voters support his re - election, Arlen Specter told Political Wire that "It's a tough year for incumbents everywhere."
There is clearly some truth to this, and we're seeing it with Governors and Congress alike. But things would be even worse for a longtime incumbent who doesn't really stand for anything. Arlen Specter has convinced people in Pennsylvania that he is one of the "bums" who needs to be "thrown out."
