Garland County Election Commission Charles Tapp made a unilateral decision to close 40 polling places and leave only 2 open. This looks like it could end up being decisive.
Garland County results three weeks ago:
Bill Halter - 44%
Blanche Lincoln - 40%
D.C. Morrison - 15%
UPDATE: Two very big "if"s, but if Lincoln ends up narrowly winning, and there's good reason to believe Garland County was decisive, the Democratic establishment is going to have a huge problem on its hands, to say the least.
The more I read about Garland County the worse the situation looks. Now maybe it just looks that way, but it's hard to see how a reduction in polling places this drastic isn't going to effect the results. Frankly, this episode is strange no matter what the result is. Can we get a clean winner here?
UPDATE #2: Apparently Garland County turnout was down by 40%. The question now is whether Garland is going to be decisive.
UPDATE #3: POLITICO calls it for Lincoln.
UPDATE #4: So does the AP.
If Lincoln won straight up, that's a really bad outcome in my mind, but not a controversy. But if Garland was decisive...
UPDATE #5: With 98% of precincts reporting, Lincoln is ahead by 10,000 votes. Unless there are errors in the count, it was Bill Clinton and Pulaski County (home to Little Rock) that won this for Blanche Lincoln. Political Wire has a good overview of the importance of Pulaski.
(I'd still like to know what Charles Tapp was thinking, though.)
This result is a real disappointment, but primaries still matter, and I still firmly believe this was worth it. K Street Dems like Blanche Lincoln are a real drag on the party. Challenging them is necessary. This was a close race. And Bill Clinton only has one home state.
Ned Lamont beat Joe Lieberman in the 06' CT primary.
Joe Sestak beat Arlen Specter in the 10' PA primary.
Blanche Lincoln beat Bill Halter in the 10' AR primary with a big assist from Bill Clinton and President Obama (plus slimy ads and a lack of polling places in Garland County), but it was close.
This is cause for disappointment, but not cause for despair.
Yesterday in Arkansas, while campaigning for Blanche Lincoln, former President Bill Clinton's selective memory took center stage. Clinton's attack on labor unions' support for Bill Halter was entirely disingenuous.
(If Bill needs some advice on how to be bold and... you know, accurate... he doesn't have to go far.)
Are we seriously supposed to believe that Clinton is unaware of the history of labor law reform? Is Dale Bumpers a name that, all of a sudden, Bill Clinton is unfamiliar with? So it's alright for K Street to prop up the Lincoln campaign, but workers and small donors supporting someone who will better represent them is a bad thing?
Come on. Let's get real.
Clinton used to say that you can't do good things if you don't get elected. When has Blanche Lincoln shown much appetite for doing good things if they are tough to do? And how could she win re - election? Is there something I'm missing? Is the magical land of Narnia located in Arkansas -- it's a secret but the votes count -- and it's a Lincoln stronghold?
The Big Dog is good at a lot of things. Primaries isn't one of them. In this case, to borrow a phrase from Bill Clinton circa 1996, that dog don't hunt. It furiously attacks straw men, but that's about it.
Today, former President Bill Clinton will campaign for incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln of K Street... I mean Virginia... I mean Arkansas, and try to save her from defeat in the Democratic primary runoff.
About four years ago, Clinton did the same thing for Joe Lieberman. With all due respect to Bill Clinton, he can definitely give a good speech, but picking candidates in Democratic primaries isn't his strong suit. Sometimes he's just plain wrong.
On a related note, the word of the day is "derivatives."
To fellow Halter supporters, now is not the time to get complacent. Being a grassroots Democrat is all about persistence. If we stay engaged, we can win this race, take the momentum into the general election, and get the working people of Arkansas the kind of Senator they deserve.
The pressure is on, and the Blanche Lincoln campaign is having an identity crisis.
Earlier today, Lincoln released a laughabe ad that portrays her as a reliable vote for core legislation.
As I'm writing this, on the front of her re - election website is a letter to the editor of a local paper. The letter is titled "Blanche Lincoln is a Blue Dog Democrat."
Bill Halter is a mainstream Arkansas Democrat. Lincoln can either take him on directly, tun as the anti - Estate Tax, pro - Chevy Tax, limousine "centrist" that she is, or run to his left. Her campaign shouldn't be able to get away with trying every approach that comes to mind.
I don't want to tempt what The West Wing called "the thing" (jinxing results) but I will say that the outcome looks like it's veering towards a next to worst case scenario for Blanche Lincoln.
About the general election. It's not just that Halter's favorable numbers are much better than Lincoln's. These are urgent times. At the risk of sounding like Master of the Obvious, having an energetic base matters; especially now. Blanche Lincoln has practically zero chance of being re - elected. Grassroots Democrats, as well as labor unions and women's organizations, have already made it clear that if she's the nominee, they're going to sit this one out. They just can't trust her.
UPDATE: This is much closer than anyone expected. With 98% of precincts reported, Lincoln is leading Halter by 2 percent, 44.5% - 42.5%. Lincoln needed to hit 50% to avoid a run - off. She didn't even break 45%. As the night went on, the question went from "How close will Lincoln get to 50%?" to "Will Lincoln even finish ahead of Halter?"
More on the results from Josh Marshall at TPM here and here.
Bill Halter seems to think that he can work his way to the Democratic Senate nomination in Arkansas. Halter is acting like people are looking to support candidates who they can trust. Well, some very powerful have found a candidate they can trust -- incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln.
This morning, the Lincoln campaign rolled out four major endorsements.
Lincoln's claim that grassroots Democrats want her to vote their way 100% of the time earned her the support of NASM (National Association of Straw Men).
The Atwater Center for Reprehensible and Misleading Political Ads is also backing Blanche Lincoln. In a statement, they praised Team Lincoln's commitment to carrying on the Atwater Legacy.
RTA (Regressive Taxation = Awesome) emphatically endorsed the incumbent, citing her history of going after the Estate Tax, and her opposition to health insurance reform reconciliation that fixed the Chevy Tax on the Middle Class. RTA's sister organization OTA (Out of Touch America) is vouching for the Senator and her belief that the Chamber of Commerce represents workers.
Aides go further, admitting that they'd relish the prospect of putting Republicans on the side of big banks in opposition to reg reform.
In stark contrast to their approach to the year-long fight over health care reform, Democrats now say broad bipartisan agreement isn't worth it if it sucks up too much time, and needlessly weakens the bill.
Sources close to the process suggest the White House is telling Senate Dems they're doing the right thing. Rather than signaling a willingness to tolerate more GOP nonsense, the West Wing is telling Reid & Co. to keep moving forward, whether Republicans like it or not.
Having the White House pushing a more straightforward approach that creates a winning contrast would be a very big deal This is a great opportunity to put the pressure on the few Republican Senators who will be needed to get this thing through. Scott Brown is acting like he's out of reach. Susan Collins is not. Wait until the pressure is really on. And every Republican who tows the party line on this, from McCain to Grassley to Burr, should pay a heavy political price for doing so.
Democrats as well need to realize that the overwhelming imperative to do this, and do it right. Thanks to Bill Halter, Blanche Lincoln has found her populist streak on this issue. Does any Senate Dem really want to take her place?
The straightforward approach needs to include an Independent CFPA.
Bill Halter is a Main Street Democrat whose message resonates with Arkansas. As for Blanche Lincoln, I don't know which she has less of -- core values or a chance of winning the general election. It's a close call. This race on the other hand, is not. The choice is clear.
