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"Health care is a fundamental right." (Ted Kennedy, 8/26/08)
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All Things Recovery: Deficit Fetish = Recovery Death Wish

by: Michael Conrad

Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 04:37:07 AM EST


Economic recovery quick hits and commentary.

Republicans are obstructing on health care and economic recovery, hoping to blame Democrats for pursuing health care reform at the expense job creation in 2010.   It makes sense that the Party of No wouldn't be able to understand that the country needs multiple things done on multiple fronts, but this kind of argument could work... if Democrats let it.

This attack is going to come regardless of what the Democratic trifecta does on health care and jobs.  There is a way they can help inoculate themselves and put Republicans on defense -- pass strong health care reform that goes into effect soon, and take a much more aggressive approach on jobs.

Michael Conrad :: All Things Recovery: Deficit Fetish = Recovery Death Wish
Democrats were elected, in large part, to stand up to special interests and get the economy working for everyone.  If they don't start producing results to that end, they're setting themselves up for big losses.

That's why indulging the deficit fetishists right now borders on insane.  It's highly counterproductive policy, and It's not going to keep the GOP from throwing every right - wing talking point in the book at Democrats in 2010.

Voters don't like the concept of deficits (who does?), but it's not really an issue many people cast their vote on.  Walter Mondale ran hard against President's Reagan's deficits in 1984.  Mondale won his home state of Minnesota and Washington DC.  Reagan carried everything else.

Jobs are going to trump deficits in a major way.

In order for Democrats to win, they need to be able to show what they've done to address the economic crisis.  If voters can answer "yes" to the "Are you better off?" question, deficit - based attacks aren't going to resonate much.  And elected Democrats are more capable of explaining why going after deficits now is backwards than they're given credit for.  The notion that they can't do this is a self - fulfilling prophecy.

If something major isn't done about jobs, blame for the recession will continue to shift to Democrats.  Now is clearly not the time to enable deficit fetishists to pat themselves on the back.

Paul Krugman on Sunday:

To be sure, "centrists" in the Senate have hobbled efforts to rescue the economy. But the evidence suggests that in addition to facing political opposition, President Obama and his inner circle have been intimidated by scare stories from Wall Street.
...

Most economists I talk to believe that the big risk to recovery comes from the inadequacy of government efforts... it's politically difficult for the Obama administration to enact a full-scale second stimulus. Still, he should be trying to push through as much aid to the economy as possible.  And remember, Mr. Obama has the bully pulpit; it's his job to persuade America to do what needs to be done.
...

[I]n the face of the greatest economic catastrophe since the Great Depression, it's much riskier to do too little than it is to do too much. It's sad, and unfortunate, that the administration appears to have lost sight of that truth.

Yesterday, Krugman compared 2009's deficit fetishists to the Iraq war promoters of 2002.

Dean Baker mocks the fetish.

The House wants to be part of the solution.

Speaker Pelosi:

We're never going to decrease the deficit until we create jobs, bring revenue into the Treasury, stimulate the economy so we have growth. We have to shed any weakness that anybody may have about not wanting to be confrontational on this subject for fear that we'd be labeled not sensitive to the deficit. ... The American people have an anger about the growth of the deficit because they're not getting anything for it. ... So if somebody has the idea that the percentage of GDP of what or national debt is will go up a bit, but they will now - and their neighbors and their children - will have jobs, I think they could absorb that. ... If we pull our punch, as they did in the mid-30's, we shouldn't be surprised if history repeats itself.

Steve Benen follows up:

Given the ongoing economic difficulties, there's no reason in the world for so many in the political establishment to want to take their foot off the gas. For politicians, this should be an especially easy call -- voters tend to be happier when the economy and job market are stronger.

This ain't rocket science, folks.

Three thing to remember.

- The DLC / Third Way / Hamilton Project wing of the party and the consultants who promote its view are useless right now.   Hanging on to conventional wisdom from the 90's is the least pragmatic thing the Democratic Party can do in this situation.  Claims that focusing on deficit reduction is somehow "pragmatic" are complete BS.

-  Focusing on the deficit right now is terrible for economic recovery, which means it's terrible for the Democratic Party.  It's a death wish for recovery.  If there is one mistake that could lead to Congressional Democrats being swept out of office in a wave election, this Rubinite nonsense is it.  

- The president's advisers are delusional if they think they aren't opening a huge door for potential 2012 opponents to walk through if they fail to act boldly on jobs.

Elected Democrats across the board need to get very serious about jobs, or get used to the idea of watching a lot of Democratic concession speeches in 2010 and 2012.

Action

Economic Policy Institute
Center for Economic and Policy Research
Campaign for America's Future
Working America
The Roosevelt Institution
Progressive States Network  

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Paul Krugman predicted correctly that the first stimulus was (3.00 / 2)
too small to do the job. Krugman also predicted that by the time everyone realizes that we need another stimulus that the political will might not be there.

"I'm tired of being right." A quote I can imagine Krugman saying.


Abstinence programs breed hypocrites.


Good on Pelosi and the House (3.00 / 1)
And Krugman and Baker. I think Galbraith is right, too, as we don't need just a stimulus, we need long term spending for a long time to get out of this so the term stimulus is kind of meaningless. We need manufacturing and we need to lower the trade deficit. that's why I'm not scared of China not buying our treasuries to inflate the Housing and Commercial real estate bubble again and to prop up the bubble economy anymore.

Their currency will go up in relation to ours going down and our exports will be cheaper and there will be more of an investment in our country whihc is what we really need. I'm tired of the bubble economy. It's unsustainable.

Which is why I am always disheartened to find such faith In Bernanke from Krugman. This is where Dean Baker is a little more correct IMO and he doesn't get enough credit for seeing the 8 trillion housing bubble for what it was.
Krugman is still the man, but I agree with other economists I think don't get as much credit, Dean Baker included, and of course Robert Kuttner on other things like trade.




Our Presdient and the Senate have deficit fetishes (3.00 / 1)
and have not explained things the public needs to know like how repressive worrying about the deficit during a period with symptoms of a deflationary spiral as we are in like Japan, but worse. But still everyone cowers including Obama and brags about wanting to reduce the deficit.

Sadly even Russ Feingold does this and it's economically illiterate of the time and the successful Keynesian polices we need to implement to get us out. We need not make FDR's mistake by listening to his Treasury secretary in 1928 after things recovered pretty well to give Cons an excuse to poo poo the New Deal.

Debt to GDP ratio is not a disaster as it's approaching 80% as it was 120% during WWII and we paid that off by growing the economy. Why can't Obama fit that in a speech and beat the Republicans and DINOs like Conrad over the head with that truth.

I'm tired of the deficit fetish.



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